From Micro to Macro: 脆弱度（vulnerability）與回復力（resilience）

2016年3月26日星期六

脆弱度（vulnerability）與回復力（resilience）

很多高明的想法，其實早就已經有人想過，而且已經做出來，自以為獨創或高明其實是井底之蛙與見識不夠廣(書讀得不夠多)

來看兩篇文章

From Risk to Resilience: Learning to Deal With Disruption

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/from-risk-to-resilience-learning-to-deal-with-disruption/

摘錄：

Supply chain practices designed to keep costs low in a stable business environment can increase risk levels during disruptions. Just-in-time and lean production methods, whereby managers work closely with a small number of suppliers to keep inventories low, can make companies more vulnerable due to the lack of buffer capacity.

Traditional methods for coping with supply chain risks are based on the notion of stability as the “normal” state of affairs: Events such as explosions or floods are seen as unwanted deviations from the norm.

A more integrated approach to risk management, called “enterprise risk management (ERM),” became popular in the mid-1990s and has been widely adopted by large corporations. It gives company executives a detailed and comprehensive view of the risks associated with different business activities, enabling managers to make more informed decisions about how to manage risk portfolios. Another risk management process, known as business continuity management (BCM), incorporates elements from disaster recovery planning and crisis management, including how to respond to disruptions and maintain backup capacity for operational systems.

為什麼ERM與BCM不給力、無效無用

1.風險太多、情境太複雜，無法預知與預測其發展

While processes such as ERM and BCM can help companies avoid supply chain disruptions and recover normal operations quickly, they also have serious limitations. To begin with, they rely too heavily on risk identification. In a complex and turbulent global supply network, many of the risks that a company faces are unpredictable or unknowable before the fact. These “emergent” risks are often triggered by improbable events whose causes are not understood, and their potential cascading effects are difficult to understand a priori. Clearly, it would be impractical for companies to identify and investigate all the potential risks that may be hidden in their global supply chains.

2.缺乏相關統計資訊

Second, ERM and BCM depend on statistical information that may not exist. Risk assessments are limited by the quality and credibility of the assumptions upon which they are based, and faulty assumptions or data can lead to misallocation of resources. Of particular challenge are low-probability, high-consequence events for which there is little empirical knowledge; managers may underestimate the probabilities of these events or the magnitudes of their consequences because they have never experienced them.

3.把各項風險看成獨立(沒有交互作用與骨牌蝴蝶效應)

Third, the traditional ERM process of risk identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring is based on a simplified, “reductionist” view of the world. Each risk is identified and addressed independently, and hidden interactions are seldom recognized. This procedural approach can lull organizations into a false sense of complacency that could be shattered by an unexpected event (for instance, an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico). The complex, dynamic nature of global supply chains requires constant vigilance to discern systemic vulnerabilities, as well as exceptional agility and flexibility when disruptions occur.

4. Management by Change, not Management of Change!

危機有如天擇，能夠存活下來的，塑造另一套產業環境與規則

Finally, traditional risk management is predicated on the goal of returning to a stable operating condition; risks represent potential deviations from this “normal” state. However, a more realistic view is to recognize that every disruption represents a learning opportunity that may suggest shifting to a different state of operations. For example, a company that anticipates increased flooding in Southeast Asia might migrate its supply base elsewhere. Identifying latent opportunities in the risk landscape will enable a company to exploit those opportunities faster than its competitors.

We define resilience as “the capacity of an enterprise to survive, adapt and grow in the face of turbulent change.”

Resilience goes beyond mitigating risk; it enables a business to gain competitive advantage by learning how to deal with disruptions more effectively than its competitors and possibly shifting to a new equilibrium.